EKSTROPI
EXECUTIVE DECISION BRIEF
PROJECT UMBER · OBS6 · CFO LENS
COMMITMENT
Hold the programme's funding envelope while the operating assumptions underneath it are moving.
ONE COMMITMENT · ONE GOVERNED REALITY · MULTIPLE LEGITIMATE EXECUTIVE READINGS
CURRENT EXECUTIVE POSITION
The forecast moved again. The assumptions moved first.
DIRECTIONDeclining slowly across three observations
EVIDENCECurrent through 7 Sep
MATERIALITY78% evidenced by weight
Conditionally supported
The financial reading is defensible while its operational assumptions remain explicit and unresolved.
ESI TRAJECTORY
52OBS3
48OBS4
46OBS5
44OBS6 · NOW
41N+1 · FORECAST
GOVERNED ENTERPRISE REALITY
FINANCE+€2.1m forecast varianceComposition explicit; the platform delay is the largest driver.
TECHNICALIntegration platform 11 weeks lateThe delay feeds parallel run and indexation exposure.
DELIVERYParallel run extended twiceEach extension converts assumption into accrued cost.
PEOPLESpecialist retention through Q2Retention cost continues while the delay stands.
OPERATIONSCost exit gate not passedIndependent operation of the new platform is not demonstrated.
GOVERNANCEEnvelope held, headroom €0.4mThe next adverse movement exhausts the headroom.
REQUIRES YOUR ATTENTION
01
Resolve the platform delay's cost tail€820k of the variance continues to accrue while the delay stands.
02
Convert the indexation exposure to a decisionContract indexation is a known movement awaiting an owner.
03
Pass the cost exit gate on evidenceParallel run ends when independent operation is demonstrated, not when the calendar says so.
DECISION BOUNDARY
The envelope holds. The headroom does not survive another adverse observation.
Current evidence supports the forecast as composed, and €0.4m of headroom does not absorb the open assumptions.
WHAT WOULD CHANGE THE POSITION
◇ The integration platform reaches its committed milestone◇ The cost exit gate is passed on demonstrated operation◇ Indexation is decided and priced◇ No new adverse movement is admitted at N+1
THE DECISION IN FRONT OF THE ROOM
The decision before governance: hold the envelope with its stated headroom, re-price the envelope on the open assumptions, or change the operating plan that drives them. The composition is explicit and the headroom is thin. The four conditions above state what would move the position.